Good discussion. I was at an avalanche lecture and Edward R LaChapelle was introduced as America's foremost avalanche expert, which he quickly debunked by saying "The only people that are experts are dead."
I agree that decision making IS very important, but it is just one factor. And then there is the matter of people skiing above you - kinda like sharing the road with drunk drivers; some of your best thinking CAN still fail, due to situations beyond our control.
In the end, the mountain holds ALL the hole cards. As a less experienced alpine touring skier, I choose to carry the "dead weight" of a beacon & probe. The most experienced AT skiers I know would never go out without a "full" pack.
