Weekend Avy Forecast

Mt. St. Helens was issuing optional refunds to folks on their permits due to this NWAC warning. In spite of a brutal sun yesterday (5/13), the snowpack was very solid, in fact it was moving less than last year. There was a wide 1' crown of unknown age in one steep bowl but it had clearly not stepped down.

At 15:00 back at Lone Fir Resort a "bank sign" was reading 94 degrees (!!!!) and it felt like it too.

I didn't see much of any activity this weekend on the south side of Rainier either. Even Nisqually chute, which was BAKING during both days, didn't move much at all. Still not very consolidated, however.

Mt. St. Helens was issuing optional refunds to folks on their permits due to this NWAC warning.  In spite of a brutal sun yesterday (5/13), the snowpack was very solid, in fact it was moving less than last year.  There was a wide 1' crown of unknown age in one steep bowl but it had clearly not stepped down.

At 15:00 back at Lone Fir Resort a "bank sign" was reading 94 degrees (!!!!) and it felt like it too.

Great Ski on St Helens! I thought the stability was fine even while wearing a shimmering dress!

It looks like the warmup yielded results at some point:

I was skiing all over the Mt. Baker Ski Area yesterday (5/15) and got a great view of Mt. Baker and the Park Glacier.  Last Friday (5/11) I saw the great tracks down the Park; yesterday I saw a huge crown across the entire Park headwall and assume the entire thing had ripped over the weekend or on Monday.

Similar aspects further around towards the Boulder Glacier showed large crowns also.

"The heat is on..."

More to come or end of story?

It looks like the warmup yielded results at some point:

More to come or end of story?

The Baker area in particular had a bad weak layer that was deeply buried. Often it takes a few consecutive days of warming (in this case 12000' freezing levels) to get be results with deeply buried weaknesses.

Often it takes a few consecutive days of warming (in this case 12000' freezing levels) to get be results with deeply buried weaknesses.

I thought this message in yesterday's Mountain Conditions Report (mcr@informalex.org) for the BC Coast Mountains was pretty interesting:

Hello All,

Just wanted to send out a Heads Up! Yesterday around noon a Size 3 - 3.5 avalanche crossed the Hurely FSR between Km 11-12. It came down from the east side of Green Mountain in an avalanche path that was a regular offender. The road had been cleared through previous avalanches in the same slide paths within the last couple of weeks.

What is special about this slide is that the slope is SE facing and has seen high temperatures for the last week, but didn't slide until yesterday. The difference yesterday was that the area received a little bit of rain from convective clouds. The gauge at Green Mountain only recorded one or two mm of precipitation, but local reports say there was more in isolated areas.

With the forecast for 10-20mm of precipitation this coming weekend take care out there. There is still enough snow to slide to valley bottom and block the road behind you. The slide on the hurley was reported about 6 meters deep.

Cheers,
Conny Amelunxen
MG