Phantom avy info? 04/06/11

Good to hear everyone made it home. I look forward to learning from the details once they're available (no rush!). Some of us had discussed trying for the Slot on Sunday, but backed off and went elsewhere at the Pass due to some concern about sun and new snow on the approach/deproach. But I cannot judge the decisions of this group w/o having been there yesterday, beyond judging that it's great that Marcus expressed willingness to share what he deems "mistakes" of the group. Maybe it's "NW nice" to give them time to share rather than trying to fill the vacuum, but it does seem like a sensible way to encourage others who may have had scary incidents to share their stories as well. In the meantime, there's plenty of room in Random Tracks for discussions of what folks are seeing and thinking regarding the current snowpack.

But would the victims still have found themselves here if the community did a better job in general of sharing info about good safe options up at the Pass? I don't know.

Well, I've seen reports from Marcus indicating that he knows about plenty of other spots at the Pass, including spots that I considered as we pondered alternatives for Sunday. Some of them are even in guidebooks. Check out Burgdorfer's coverage of the Pass area, for instance (hint - several tours; Snoqualmie Peak is not one of them...). Buy a used copy of the 100 XC ski tours for more. There is plenty of info out there, yes, including over a decade of TRs here. So I don't see that some more Pass location TRs would have changed the story here, but perhaps Marcus will argue differently. But in any case, it strikes me as a bit irrational to go to a spot that's especially hazardous on a given day simply because you don't know of a less hazardous spot - sure, it might happen, but I feel exactly zero responsibility for someone else's irrational decisions. Why would I even think that providing a little info would improve their approach to decisions? Add to that the fact that any "stashes" that involve good skiing will have avalanche hazard (if you can have fun skiing it in fresh snow conditions, the hazard is there!), and you realize that there can be no such thing as "the guide to the really fun yet safe stashes at the Pass." Sure, there is a hazard spectrum, but it strikes me that the spectrum still remains something for each party to be determining for themselves on the day of their tour, and not something to pull from some handy online cheat sheet. Still, to show community spirit, I'll reveal a "safe" stash here and now. When I'm especially wigged by the snowpack, I go XC skiing at Gold Creek and stop well short of where the first avalanche path comes down to cross the summer trail. Or I go hike Mt Si or some such... ETA: should we judge people who post TRs on the Phantom to be responsible, due to the heralded "TAY lemming" effect? Perhaps there should be no TRs?

Wow - I'm really glad everyone got down last night. Great job, rescuers! It's sobering to hear you were involved, Marcus. I'm on the edges waiting to hear the analysis.

This a very interesting thread. Comments are surprising. ::)Like the one below by Plinko


"I blame this all on Alpental's ridiculously early midweek closure. They should have been open to providing a reasonable inbounds option. "

I fail to see how Alpental's decision should effect the decision making of BC skiers ??? ??? ???
A decision was made to place themselves in a dangerous avalanche path that resulted in injury and considerable exposure to rescue presonnel.

Fellow skiers please be diligent in your risk assessments. Keep yourself, friends and rescue pesonnel safe.

The NWAC report from the night before simply stated not to go out (in other words). Extreme danger. I'd like to know the decision making process in going out on a south facing slope with all the fresh on top of the rain crust.

The NWAC report from the night before simply stated not to go out (in other words).  Extreme danger.

???
Here's what the NWAC archive has for Tuesday's forecast:

Tuesday to Wednesday morning: High avalanche danger above 4000 feet and considerable below. Danger increasing Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon and night: Decreasing high danger above 6000 feet and considerable below.


Snowpack Analysis



A strong storm began Monday morning, depositing some 10 to 25 inches of new snow in most areas. Strong winds near ridge top caused widespread unstable layers to form on most lee slopes, especially higher terrain. Heavy snowfall and daytime warming produced some natural avalanches Monday, however many of these paths have already reloaded with new unstable layers.

Unstable conditions were reported at the Mt Baker and Stevens ski area by field professionals early Tuesday where ski triggered and exposive releases had extensive propagation and were sensitive, despite significant new snow settlement rates. In general, most slides were involving storm snow layers up to 1.5 ft deep, but with good propagation and running long distances.

There remains a threat for some slides releasing in new snow layers to penetrate a wet snow layer of some 1 to 2 feet thick that may be buried 1 to 3 feet below the surface. Any slides involving these layers would be big and very dangerous, possibly destructive in nature, however predicting which slope would or could slide to these deeper layers is difficult.

Therefore we are not recommending travel in avalanche terrain until these unstable wet snow layers strengthen and new unstable layers stabilize.


Detailed Forecasts

Tuesday to Wednesday morning


Moderate orographic snow showers and moderate to strong westerly crest level winds should maintain or build further unstable wind slab layers on lee slopes, especially northwest to southeast facing slopes. Another frontal system is expected later Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. This should cause increasing and strong winds with moderate to heavy snowfall at low freezing levels. This weather will build new unstable layers on similar aspects, mainly northeast to southeast. Natural or human triggered avalanches should remain likely through early Wednesday, especially on steep open lee slopes. Avalanche releases may step down to or entrain underlying wet snow layers making some isolated large slides possible. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Tuesday through Wednesday morning.


Wednesay afternoon and night


Gradually decreasing showers are expected later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This should allow for a slow decrease in danger as previous unstable layers slowly consolidate and settle. However, any sun breaks being received later Wednesday may quickly make recent snow unstable and cause wet snow avalanches on steep exposed slopes. Some of these may be quite large in areas that have received significant recent storm snow amounts. Also, large cornice formations may become weak and fail during the warmest part of the day. These conditions will make careful route-finding essential later Wednesday.

So "travel not recommended" - check. "Extreme" - appears not.

I think we all share the desire to understand the group's thought process, including what they saw on the ground. I think Charlie is exactly right - give Marcus time to honor his promise to share.

Marcus (and the rest involved),
Happy to hear that you all made it out, not happy to hear about he injuries, some of them sounded rather sever.
I hope everyone heels quickly and finds themselves back on snow in the future.
Hats of to the SAR, and anyone else that was involved in what sounds like a complicated rescue situation.
as others have mentioned, I also look forward to rearing your trip report.
Given the time of the incident and when everyone was finally off the mountain, it would also be interesting to hear about the extraction as well (if possible).