Amar is a weather rock star...

Several of us were enjoying a relaxing evening at the Asulkin Cabin after a day of enjoying Selkirk powder when a request via text for weather info came in from Amar.  Amar presented a scenario of the warm front arriving about 6 hours earlier than the weather from enviro Canada.

After much discussion ( and some dissent-who wants to leave a warm hut in the evening?) we decided to descend that night with headlamps.  The next morning it was raining at 3,500 ft. and the temps were rising.  The rapidly arriving front was a surprise to the skiers gathered at the info center and the parking lot who had hoped for at least a morning of powder skiing.  Thank you Amar--that was really cool how you put together that forecast for us despite your dislike of texting.
Stephanie B. enjoying her first visit to Rogers Pass

Evening Powder is far better than Morning Mank (nasty slide conditions aside)... nice call getting out of there and utilizing your in-town resources

Best to get below the mousetrap before the rain, good call

Thanks Gregg. But the real rock star is the UW weather model ( www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/ ), which is responsible for the accurate prediction of the timing of the warm front and the freezing levels behind it.

To clarify for other readers: Stephanie sent me a text from Asulkan Cabin (at 2100 m / 7000 ft south of Rogers Pass, BC, which is at 1330 m / 4360 ft) around 4pm Saturday, asking whether I could look up the freezing levels for the next 24 hours for the Rogers Pass area, since they had heard of an incoming warm front for Sunday. I spent a couple of hours looking up the Canadian forecasts and also the avalanche forecasts for the Canadian Glacier National Park, trying to familiarize myself with the area (I've only ever been to Rogers Pass once, driving through it in 2002), and then looking up detailed predictions from the UW weather model. The Rogers Pass area is just past the edge of the region for which the UW model is run on a 4km grid, but it does fall within the broader region of the 12km grid.

The forecast from Environment Canada for Revelstoke and Golden (the nearest forecast points to Rogers Pass) stated "Sunday: Snow changing to rain late in the morning. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Snow level rising to 1400 metres in the afternoon." However, looking at the "12km 850 mb temps, winds, heights" graphics from the UW model, it implied that the freezing level would reach about 1600-1700 m by Sunday morning, lowering towards 1400 m by afternoon and even lower in the evening. Now obviously "snow level" and "freezing level" can differ by 200-300 m, but clearly the timing of the warming seemed to be earlier in the UW model, and perhaps a bit warmer too than what Environment Canada was predicting. So I texted her back with that info a little after 6pm.

Anyway, I've posted in praise of the UW weather model several times before here, including TRs where the decision to go at all was based solely on the model's predictions in the face of a marginal or poor NWS forecast. The UW model has become increasingly accurate over the past several years, since it is an ongoing research project under active development in the UW atmospheric sciences department. It's worth putting in the time to learn how to use the few key portions of its output which are most useful for trip planning in the mountains of the Northwest.

It's worth putting in the time to learn how to use the few key portions of its output which are most useful for trip planning in the mountains of the Northwest.

You might have just stumbled upon a funding resource for your book. Sign me up- I'd pay for a class on that.

I'd be interested in a class as well.