- Posts: 464
- Thank you received: 0
The weather just keeps getting stranger....
- garyabrill
-
Topic Author
- User
-
Less
More
19 years 1 month ago #176828
by garyabrill
The weather just keeps getting stranger.... was created by garyabrill
After the weird, hot and extremely dry (record) summer and the humungus rain events of early November, we are settling into one of the longest periods of favorable snowfall since the early 70's - low snow levels on average and abundant precipitation.
I was at a party with some Atmos Sciences grad students and one of the students and I were discussing the recent windstorm, how this storm was kind of like a flash from the past for cool, wet storms. Anyway the student noted that there was a lot of cold air with the system and it was a very deep developing cyclone as it came over our area.
It was a couple of days later that I saw a listing of previous wind events...this one ranked 5th for peak wind gusts of 69mph. The record holders were in 1951,53,and 55. It is worth noting that the early 50's was the beginning of a 20+ year cool phase of the PDO or the Pacific Dicadal Oscillation which is cgharacterized by cool ocean temps along the W coast. Well we are overdo for a return to the cool phase of the PDO cycle. Although it is too early to tell, I wonder if this current weather just might be the first sign of the return of the cool phase of the PDO. Time will tell...
I hope I didn't just jinx the rest of this winter.....
I was at a party with some Atmos Sciences grad students and one of the students and I were discussing the recent windstorm, how this storm was kind of like a flash from the past for cool, wet storms. Anyway the student noted that there was a lot of cold air with the system and it was a very deep developing cyclone as it came over our area.
It was a couple of days later that I saw a listing of previous wind events...this one ranked 5th for peak wind gusts of 69mph. The record holders were in 1951,53,and 55. It is worth noting that the early 50's was the beginning of a 20+ year cool phase of the PDO or the Pacific Dicadal Oscillation which is cgharacterized by cool ocean temps along the W coast. Well we are overdo for a return to the cool phase of the PDO cycle. Although it is too early to tell, I wonder if this current weather just might be the first sign of the return of the cool phase of the PDO. Time will tell...
I hope I didn't just jinx the rest of this winter.....
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mej
-
- User
-
Less
More
- Posts: 60
- Thank you received: 0
19 years 1 month ago #176829
by mej
Replied by mej on topic Re: The weather just keeps getting stranger....
I wouldn't mind a cool PDO + La Nina winter.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- wickstad
-
- User
-
Less
More
- Posts: 253
- Thank you received: 0
19 years 1 month ago #176830
by wickstad
Replied by wickstad on topic Re: The weather just keeps getting stranger....
I'm a firm believer in repeating patterns. Using a small data set I predicted a lowland snow event with a silver thaw (cold air moves in after the snow event instead of warm air) would occur between the week after Thanksgiving and before the end of January. My prediction was based solely on observations of lowland snow during flood years. Flood years are snow years.
So I guess my point is I'll believe anything you predict based on limited data. However, if that Pacific thing is well documented then there must be other data from other regions that will correlate with current weather conditions. Does that make sense?
btw. We had etch-a-scetch skiing today. It wasn't even snowing. There was a dump overnight followed by high winds during the day. All the snow that ended up in the trees overnight was blowing in and smoothing out the slopes after each run. Amazing. Were you up there mej?
So I guess my point is I'll believe anything you predict based on limited data. However, if that Pacific thing is well documented then there must be other data from other regions that will correlate with current weather conditions. Does that make sense?
btw. We had etch-a-scetch skiing today. It wasn't even snowing. There was a dump overnight followed by high winds during the day. All the snow that ended up in the trees overnight was blowing in and smoothing out the slopes after each run. Amazing. Were you up there mej?
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- skykilo
-
- User
-
Less
More
- Posts: 304
- Thank you received: 0
19 years 1 month ago #176831
by skykilo
Replied by skykilo on topic Re: The weather just keeps getting stranger....
Gary, you're getting me all hot and bothered.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- BillK
-
- User
-
Less
More
- Posts: 151
- Thank you received: 0
19 years 1 month ago #176832
by BillK
Replied by BillK on topic Re: The weather just keeps getting stranger....
Love the term "etch-a-sketch skiing" day....very apt description!
-Bill
-Bill
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- hyak.net
-
- User
-
Less
More
- Posts: 601
- Thank you received: 0
19 years 1 month ago #176833
by hyak.net
Replied by hyak.net on topic Re: The weather just keeps getting stranger....
Remember in September we had the "Doom and Gloom" thread. NOAA was predicting (again) warmer then normal, high snow levels and basically a crud season. Farmers Almanac predicted cold and snowy winter for this season and again NOAA was wrong.
Doom and Gloom thread w/predictions.
www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboardi...dex.php?topic=5298.0
Doom and Gloom thread w/predictions.
www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboardi...dex.php?topic=5298.0
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.